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Cubs Number-Crunching

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

It’s been hard to do this since I started my job in January.  I’m hoping to improve my skills and get on the blogging thing more.  Let’s get better. 

It’s also been hard to write when I’ve been caught up in speeding home to watch the Cubs play.  I’m excited.  I’m also pretty much scared.  It’s a good looking team, maybe too good for me to live through it without a stroke or a coronary. 

Let’s just pay attention to starting pitching lines from this week’s series with Milwaukee:

Monday - Lilly - 6IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 4K, 1BB

Tuesday - Zambrano - 8IP, 5H, 0R, 9K, 2BB

Wednesday - Dempster - 7IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 9K, 1BB

Thursday - Harden - 7IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 9K, 0BB

Add that up: from Cubs starters, 28IP, 23H, 5ER, 31K, 4BB (!) 

That would give you a WHIP of 0.96 (that’s good), and an ERA of 1.61 (that’s really good). 

The Cubs scored as many runs as the Brewers had strikeouts.  That with a couple of O-fer performances from D-Lee.  Someone came up big at the plate every day, though. 

Starting pitching has been very, very good for the Cubs this year.  Jason Marquis, as frustrating as he can be, might be the best fifth starter in the whole league. 

Marquis is averaging 6 IP over his last 10 starts.  He tends to struggle early in games, which isn’t a great attribute, but when the bullpen needs a break, he can settle down and gobble up innings better than anyone. 

But it doesn’t matter.

We can say that “starting pitching wins championships” but we know that there are no hard and fast rules to this business.  The 2006 Cardinals went 83-79 and tiptoed through the playoffs with a patchwork rotation that included 2 guys who barely have jobs in the league anymore in Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes.   How about the whole “small ball” thing.  I don’t know if you noticed, but the 2008 Red Sox could really drive the ball, and I think there were quite a few 1920s Yankee teams that might have had a little pop in their bats. 

The Cubs, and the Sox, and any team can sign up or trade for all of the “left-handed bats with pop,” or “power righty in the bullpen,” or “dreaded 1,2 combination at the top of the rotation.”  For all the stat-keeping and stat-creating we can do, every champion and pennant winner has a few exceptions to the rules.  The formulas definitely don’t always work, and it gets even more jumbled in the playoffs.  Bullpens and lead-off hitters don’t guarantee anything right now.  Wins don’t even guarantee anything now.  The only win that will give you a guarantee is the last one.  The rest of them just give you another chance.

 AJD

Breaking News: An Old Man Wrote a Book

Friday, December 14th, 2007

The Mitchell Report, like anything covered by ESPN, was blown up into a complete media frenzy. If anyone has ever been paying attention during a national disaster, ESPN’s coverage would have reignited distinct memories.

Their bombastic and universal coverage of the story, which lasted for six hours on the network, and what I can only assume was much longer on ESPN News, created that surreal feeling that I’ve felt when ever I am engulfed in a tumultuous breaking news story on the major networks or CNN. The world stopped, there were constant updates, the scroll ran constantly with excerpts and summations of the text of Mitchell’s findings. Even this morning, I still felt that “breaking news” perspective, where I can actually sense that something of great gravity occurred.

All of the information was given, repeatedly, and for someone grossly enveloped in sports coverage, I thought was well-reported, and handled by ESPN’s best reporters. Bob Ley, Jeremy Schaap, Roger Cossack, and Karl Ravech were solid on TV. Mike Tirico, being an opinion-maker on a national radio show, allowed the listener to form opinions based on Mitchell’s press conference, along with his broad and general commentary. I appreciate ESPN Radio for this reason. Unlike local sports radio, it avoids the gratuitous and out-of-control commentary by big fat loud guys. On television, and later on the radio, it soon would not be avoided.

ESPN has all of the greatest sports resources in the world. It’s website alone probably has a greater economy than a number of third-world countries. Many of the best sports analysts and reporters want to work at the “Worldwide Leader” and rightfully so. So, why, with all of that power, and in what was built up and reported as the most weighty story of they year, did America have to listen to John Kruk?

Kruk gave me one great, stand-up quality line, with “I used to have a problem with drinking. I didn’t blame the people who make beer!” He was volatile towards Mitchell and the league. He said that it was “pretty good” to only have about 80 players and only 5-6 superstars. He, necessarily, questioned the validity of the report, but also was insistent that no names should have been named. Without examples, I feel that the report would be worthless, and it was necessary to demonstrate the depth of the paper trail behind the drugs, and the depth of use, stretching from the biggest superstar to the most meaningless cog of the league.

I think that the media, and the public, need to be educated on the report, and realize that some players are, clearly, more guilty than others, and that a mention in the report should not necessarily be a complete smear on one’s record. The wide-ranging scope of drug use in the sport means that a significant (not necessarily a majority) percentage of the players most likely experimented with some sort of performance-enhancing substance. While their actions were both illegal and against the sport’s policies, players listed with a few degrees of separation, and without reasonable understanding that they were consistent users should be given chances to prove themselves to the league and its fans. It is consistent use that the league and its fans should recognize as flagrant and egregious, and to which they should take a stronger offense.

One person who didn’t take this approach was J Hood on ESPN 1000. Last night, in a very brief listening, I heard him say that Andy MacPhail and Peter Angelos unloaded Miguel Tejada, and were trying to “rid themselves” of Brian Roberts to “clean house of all their dirty players.” Hood is the same broadcaster who said that he doesn’t care if players use steroids to hit home runs, because he just likes being entertained by it. The mention of Tejada in the report is with a large amount of here say, interpreted by me to be something like, “A guy might have seen something in his locker.” The mention of Roberts is slightly more corroborative, saying that he lived with drug users, and mentioned that he “tried it once or twice.” As you can see, it seems wrong to place all of these players on equal footing as “players named in the Mitchell Report.” When there are 82 named references to Roger Clemens, and stories of he and Pettitte getting poked in their bums with syringes, compared with the “six degrees of Kevin Bacon” game of many other players, it doesn’t seem fair to generalize.

While these analysts and radio personalities are employed in the business of opinion-making, this report is definitely a story that needed to be reported like news. Broad and informative reporting,with calm and focused commentary by well-educated and experienced analysts, was appreciated, and allowed baseball enthusiasts to make their own opinions. Listening to Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, and Buster Olney, giving their opinions with a clear head and clear statements, permits those of us watching to understand their perspectives, and agree or disagree. Listening to Kruk and Hood blow off steam and pound on their desks forced their opinions down my throat and into my brain.

AJD

What I’ve Missed Part I - Your NL Central Division Champions….Whatever That Means!

Monday, October 1st, 2007

The Cubs crawled into the MLB playoffs with a victory on Friday, coupled with yet another Milwaukee loss. All the Cubs had to do was get swept by Florida to make the playoffs!

But, I’m over the ridiculously bad division, and the pretty average record, and the 2-4 finish. Let’s make a playoff roster prediction!!

Piniella said that the team will carry 11 pitchers and 14 position players. I’m still not sure if Daryle Ward has a shot, depending on his injury, but barring injury, he’s in. I don’t know if this is dumb or not, but let’s try it:

Catchers - Kendall, Soto (already in, apparently)

Infielders - Lee (1b), DeRosa (2b), Theriot (ss), Ramirez (3b), Fontenot (Util.), Ward (IF/OF), Cedeno (2b/ss)

Outfielders - Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton, Pie

Pitchers - Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marmol, Dempster, Howry, Wuertz, Wood, Hart, Eyre.

OK, so that was way harder than I expected it to be. Wood isn’t even a question to me after his last few appearances. I think Kevin Hart has played his way on…and I think he’s eligible. No way I would keep Trachsel over any of these pitchers. I want to think Sean Marshall could make it, but it would leave off either Scott Eyre or Hart. The real news: Trachsel sucks.

Daryle Ward’s health will affect the way the position players are set up. If he’s too hurt to play, Craig Monroe or even Sam Fuld could get a shot. I think the Cubs have to keep Cedeno to give them a backup at shortstop. Monroe has been largely useless for them, while Felix Pie has at least speed and defense.

The great thing about the playoffs: everyone gets a shot. This is the big story, so we’ll be following this one quite a bit.

Next up - Griese grosses out Grossman, out-grosses Grossman in gross amount of gross interceptions to Griese’s greasy handed receivers.

Someone Important : Write About Carlos Marmol!!

Friday, September 21st, 2007

I said to my Dad the other day:

“I don’t think I’ve seen Carlos Marmol give up a run this year.”

Now, if you don’t know, I was a part of a touring group during the Summer, and didn’t get to see any Cubs games. I thought I was simply being fecetious, however…

Marmol’s last run was given up on August 10, my birthday. I was not home, yet. Carlos Marmol has yet to surrender a run since I came home. He hasn’t given up a run in his last 16 outings, spanning 20 1/3 innings. Ridiculous. Not quite Orel Hershiser’s 59 inning stretch, but very, very impressive for a reliever.

His ERA has fallen to 1.23 after today’s successful outing, combining with Kevin Hart, Will Ohman, Kerry Wood, and Ryan Dempster on a fantastic day for the bullpen, after a difficult start for Jason Marquis. Carlos Marmol deserves some good, professional writing. His last story on ESPN.com is from his May 18 call up.

Marmol is one of the Cubs’ MVPs, and is certainly their most consistent pitcher out of the pen. That slider is filthy.

AJD

The weekend.

Tuesday, September 18th, 2007

Oh, it’s not often I get to talk about a great weekend like this one.

  • Cubs take three out of four

  • Bears win

  • Illinois football beats a “Football Bowl Subdivision” opponent (so lame)

The Cubs are playing well, or at least good enough to beat their subpar divisional opponents. Both the Cards and the Cubs left countless men on base, and men in scoring position, during their four-game set. But, I think Phil Simms said it best with,“the only stat that matters, is the win.” Well said, Phil, well said. The Cubs got timely hits when they needed them, and the pitching staff held up to pretty much push the Cardinals right out of the race. The come-from-behind win last night against Cincinnati in Wrigley was a great one, and a sign of a playoff caliber team.

Good teams have a special quality about them: someone always comes through, and you’re never sure who it is going to be. For the Cubs in 2003, it could have been Moises Alou or Sammy Sosa, but also Damian Miller, or Eric Karros, or even Tony Womack. For the Illinois Basketball team in 2005, there was Dee, Deron, and Luther, but also Jack Ingram and Roger Powell. Good teams need big stars to make plays, like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, but also need players like Mark DeRosa, Jacque Jones, or even the wiry and child-like Sam Fuld to come through.

The Cubs are finally taking care of some business, and need to finish the season strong. I thought 85 wins would be enough, but with the Brewers playing so well, they might need to get to 87.

The Bears looked like the Bears. Suffocating defense, pretty solid running game, and frightening quarterback play. What should have been a complete massacre ended with the Bears letting a pretty gritty, and dare I say, defensively solid, Chiefs team back into the game. The leash on Rex is getting shorter, and I’ve been a Grossman supporter through and through. I’m also a huge Kyle Orton fan. This weekend should be interesting.

My friend Todd from Kansas City and I chatted during the game. There were some highlights:

On an early 3rd and long:

TODD: hmmm herm runs up the middle

TODD: how original

On a later 3rd and long:

TODD: dont run it up the middle

TODD: dont run it up the middle

THE SCRAWL: its comin todd

TODD: run up the middle…….

On Herm Edwards not knowing how to use the Internet:

THE SCRAWL: hes so hip

THE SCRAWL: that herm

TODD: no he’s not- he doesnt even have the internet

TODD: he’s just getting into VCR’s

THE SCRAWL: he just saw “dazed and confused”

THE SCRAWL: after trying fondue

And, sweet Jesus, the Illini beat somebody. Still poor on special teams, even against Syracuse, the Illini managed to overcome and rush for 350+ yards to beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. Like I said, I expected the Illini to win, and no one should be shocked or over-congratulatory. Still….I was a little shocked. Let’s see how they handle Indiana in Bloomington.

Congratulations to Jim Thome on his 500th HR, and for the dramatic fashion in which is was hit. He’s a quality ballplayer, and a great person, and he deserved for that hit to be in a playoff race.

 

Go Cubs, Go.

 

AJD

The Girly Slapfight of I-94!

Tuesday, August 28th, 2007

ESPN is including this week’s Cubs/Brewers series as one of the “Showdown Series” touting battles between the top two teams in a number of divisions throughout MLB.

If you look at the records, this series doesn’t strike me as being much of a showdown. The Cubs come in at a dominating 66-63, while the Brewers step in at an astounding 65-65. The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 19, and the Brewers have lost 13 of their last 18. They’ve both struggled enough to let the previously forgotten World Series champions back into the mix.

The NL Central just seems to be lacking in any sort of firepower or excitement that would make this series, or any of these final 30ish games a “showdown.” Two of the top three teams have their No.1 starters on the DL (Carpenter-STL and Sheets- MIL). The third ace, Carlos Zambrano, has been a mess in August (0-3, 7.04). According to Phil Rogers, the Brewers top three starters (Sheets, Capuano, Suppan) haven’t gained a winning decision in 59 days! To go with it, there are three teams that even I forgot about, and occasionally struggle to name (Is Bobby Bonilla still playing for the Pirates? That kid’s got some real swagger!) . The Reds are on a hot streak, but are not good, as predicted. The Astros just fired their manager and GM in one fell swoop. The Pirates are still bad. Yet again, the division that houses the local club totally stinks (see: NFC North, Eastern Conference, Big Ten).

Even though the division is so bad, the Cubs have a chance to really pull away in these three games, and come really close to signing off on their ticket to the playoffs. They have a massive advantage over this Brewers team in starting pitching. They also have the most beloved attribute for radio analysts: “intangibles.” I think Mike Fontenot is just intangibles wearing a ballcap. They get to play these three games at home, with their star outfielder back in the lineup, with all the excitement of a home playoff atmosphere. It’s their chance to break away from the pack, and stake their claim on the division. Plus, they get the emotional boost of having me in the stands on Thursday evening.

But don’t give the Cubs anything. Should be an exciting series, if you enjoy mediocrity.

 

Little bites:

-Vikings traded for Kelly Holcomb today. Still not sure if that makes their QB situation better or worse.

-Yes, Rex is better than Kelly Holcomb.

-Lance Briggs?! Looks like he went out and bought a Lamborghini with that franchise money. Then wrecked it and ran. Fortunately, Brian Carlwell wasn’t sitting in the passenger seat. Not worried as long as he shows up every Sunday. Expect high dosages of Okwo in 2008.

 

Should be a good blog, if you enjoy mediocrity.

 

AJD

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